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<channel>
	<title>Risk Predictions</title>
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	<link>http://riskpredictions.info</link>
	<description>Risk Analysis, System Simulation, Statistical Analysis and Predictions</description>
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		<title>Correlation Matrix</title>
		<link>http://riskpredictions.info/uncategorized/correlation-matrix/</link>
		<comments>http://riskpredictions.info/uncategorized/correlation-matrix/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Apr 2012 02:23:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Yunwei Hu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://riskpredictions.info/?p=502</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Via R Graph Gallery panel.cor &#60;- function(x, y, digits=2, prefix="", cex.cor) { usr &#60;- par("usr"); on.exit(par(usr)) par(usr = c(0, 1, 0, 1)) r &#60;- abs(cor(x, y)) txt &#60;- format(c(r, 0.123456789), digits=digits)[1] txt &#60;- paste(prefix, txt, sep="") if(missing(cex.cor)) cex &#60;- 0.8/strwidth(txt) &#8230; <a href="http://riskpredictions.info/uncategorized/correlation-matrix/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Via <a href="http://addictedtor.free.fr/graphiques/graphcode.php?graph=137">R Graph Gallery</a></p>
<pre>panel.cor &lt;- function(x, y, digits=2, prefix="", cex.cor)
{
    usr &lt;- par("usr"); on.exit(par(usr))
    par(usr = c(0, 1, 0, 1))
    r &lt;- abs(cor(x, y))
    txt &lt;- format(c(r, 0.123456789), digits=digits)[1]
    txt &lt;- paste(prefix, txt, sep="")
    if(missing(cex.cor)) cex &lt;- 0.8/strwidth(txt)

    test &lt;- cor.test(x,y)
    # borrowed from printCoefmat
    Signif &lt;- symnum(test$p.value, corr = FALSE, na = FALSE,
                  cutpoints = c(0, 0.001, 0.01, 0.05, 0.1, 1),
                  symbols = c("***", "**", "*", ".", " "))

    text(0.5, 0.5, txt, cex = cex * r)
    text(.8, .8, Signif, cex=cex, col=2)
}
pairs(USJudgeRatings[,c(2:3,6,1,7)],
  lower.panel=panel.smooth, upper.panel=panel.cor)</pre>
<p><img class="alignnone" title="Correlation Matrix" src="http://addictedtor.free.fr/graphiques/graphiques/graph_137.png" alt="" width="500" height="500" /></p>
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		<title>Food, Not War, Is the Biggest Threat to World Security, Argues Lester Brown</title>
		<link>http://riskpredictions.info/risk/food-not-war-is-the-biggest-threat-to-world-security-argues-lester-brown/</link>
		<comments>http://riskpredictions.info/risk/food-not-war-is-the-biggest-threat-to-world-security-argues-lester-brown/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 30 Mar 2012 06:06:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Yunwei Hu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[risk]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://riskpredictions.info/?p=496</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Via Observations, Scientific American Blog Network. Even as Iran’s nuclear program raises the likelihood of yet another conflict in the Middle East, the bigger threat is a potential food crisis in the making, says Lester Brown, founder of the Earth &#8230; <a href="http://riskpredictions.info/risk/food-not-war-is-the-biggest-threat-to-world-security-argues-lester-brown/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2012/03/29/food-not-war-is-the-biggest-threat-to-world-security-argues-lester-brown/">Via Observations, Scientific American Blog Network</a>.</p>
<blockquote><p><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, ApresTT, Prelude, Verdana, san-serif; font-style: normal; line-height: 24px;">Even as Iran’s nuclear program raises the likelihood of yet another conflict in the Middle East, the bigger threat is a potential food crisis in the making, says Lester Brown, founder of the Earth Policy Institute. </span></p></blockquote>
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		<title>10 Facts about Portable Electronics and Airplanes</title>
		<link>http://riskpredictions.info/risk/10-facts-about-portable-electronics-and-airplanes/</link>
		<comments>http://riskpredictions.info/risk/10-facts-about-portable-electronics-and-airplanes/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 22 Dec 2011 21:44:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Yunwei Hu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[risk]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://riskpredictions.info/?p=494</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Via Scientific American Blog Network. Here are the first three: 1. Radio-frequency emissions from cell phones, laptops and other electronics can occur at the same frequencies used by aircraft communication, navigation and surveillance radio receivers. These emissions could cause fluctuations &#8230; <a href="http://riskpredictions.info/risk/10-facts-about-portable-electronics-and-airplanes/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2011/12/22/10-facts-about-portable-electronics-and-airplanes/">Via Scientific American Blog Network</a>.</p>
<p>Here are the first three:</p>
<blockquote><p>1. Radio-frequency emissions from cell phones, laptops and other  electronics can occur at the same frequencies used by aircraft  communication, navigation and surveillance radio receivers. These  emissions could cause fluctuations in navigation readouts, problems with  other flight displays, and interference with air traffic  communications.</p>
<p>2. It’s less risky to let passengers use portable electronics  (with the exception of cell phones) at cruising altitudes above 3,000  kilometers because the flight crew would have more time to diagnose and  address any possible interference than they would during takeoff or  landing.</p>
<p>3. Because passengers bring such a variety of portable electronics  onboard in so many different states of function or disrepair, the FAA  can’t assure that none of them will interfere with flight  instrumentation. The agency thus tells carriers to prohibit their use  completely during critical phases of flight.</p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2011/11/all-electronic-devices-must-now-be-powered-off-but-why/249184/">James Fallows</a>, please take note.</p>
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		<title>Market returns by month</title>
		<link>http://riskpredictions.info/risk/market-returns-by-month-2/</link>
		<comments>http://riskpredictions.info/risk/market-returns-by-month-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Dec 2011 06:57:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Yunwei Hu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[risk]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://riskpredictions.info/?p=491</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Via Enguyen at R news &#38; tutorial.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Via Enguyen at <a href="http://www.r-bloggers.com/a-look-at-market-returns-by-month/?utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+RBloggers+%28R+bloggers%29">R news &amp; tutorial</a>.<br />
<img alt="" src="http://blog.datapunks.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/Picture-1.png" title="Market returns by month" class="alignnone" width="632" height="483" /></p>
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		<title>Google CEO: Android Predated iPhone</title>
		<link>http://riskpredictions.info/technology/google-ceo-android-predated-iphone-2/</link>
		<comments>http://riskpredictions.info/technology/google-ceo-android-predated-iphone-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Nov 2011 19:34:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Yunwei Hu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[technology]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://riskpredictions.info/?p=487</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[According to Mr. Schmidt, the Android effort started before the iPhone effort. Android was founded in 2003 and acquired by Google in 2005. Apple debuted the first iPhone in 2007. When did the &#8220;iPhone effort&#8221; start? I don&#8217;t know, but Mr. Schmidt &#8230; <a href="http://riskpredictions.info/technology/google-ceo-android-predated-iphone-2/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>According to Mr. Schmidt, <a href="http://allthingsd.com/20111108/google-ceo-android-pre-dated-iphone/">the Android effort started before the iPhone effort</a>. <span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;">Android was founded in 2003 and acquired by Google in 2005. Apple debuted the first iPhone in 2007. When did the &#8220;iPhone effort&#8221; start? I don&#8217;t know, but Mr. Schmidt knows better since he sit on the board of Apple before the iPhone debut. </span> I&#8217;d like to quote John Paczkowski:</p>
<blockquote><p>A wise move, considering what the company’s prototype Android handset looked like<a style="color: #0087bb; text-decoration: none;" href="http://random.andrewwarner.com/what-googles-android-looked-like-before-and-after-the-launch-of-iphone/">before the debut of the iPhone</a>, and what the first Android smartphone — the HTC Dream — looked like <a style="color: #0087bb; text-decoration: none;" href="http://daringfireball.net/2010/06/whats_fair">when it finally arrived at market</a>.</p></blockquote>
<p>And add &#8220;what today&#8217;s Android phones look like&#8221;.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://allthingsd.com/20111108/google-ceo-android-pre-dated-iphone/"><img src="http://allthingsd.com/files/2011/11/Android_before_after_iphone.png" alt="Android_before_after_iphone" /></a></p>
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		<title>RIP. Steve Jobs</title>
		<link>http://riskpredictions.info/technology/rip-steve-jobs/</link>
		<comments>http://riskpredictions.info/technology/rip-steve-jobs/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Oct 2011 05:26:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Yunwei Hu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[technology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Apple]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://riskpredictions.info/?p=476</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I was thinking about the &#8220;disappointing&#8221; iPhone 4S launch yesterday while reading tweets on my iPhone. Then the news. President Obama said it, &#8220;there may be no greater tribute to Steve’s success than the fact that much of the world &#8230; <a href="http://riskpredictions.info/technology/rip-steve-jobs/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I was thinking about the &#8220;disappointing&#8221; iPhone 4S launch yesterday while reading tweets on my iPhone. Then the news. President Obama said it, &#8220;there may be no greater tribute to Steve’s success than the fact that much of the world learned of his passing on a device he invented.&#8221;</p>
<p>He is my hero, as he is to many others on this planet. So much has been said about him in last few hours. Much more is going to be said in years to come. I will only quote himself in this post.</p>
<blockquote><p>Do you want to spend the rest of your life selling sugared water or do you want a chance to change the world?<br />
- A comment he made in persuading John Sculley to become Apple&#8217;s CEO, as quoted in Odyssey : Pepsi to Apple : A Journey of Adventure, Ideas, and the Future (1987) by John Sculley and John A. Byrne</p>
<p>“The cure for Apple is not cost-cutting. The cure for Apple is to innovate its way out of its current predicament.” [Apple Confidential: The Real Story of Apple Computer Inc., May 1999]</p>
<p>Remembering that I&#8217;ll be dead soon is the most important tool I&#8217;ve ever encountered to help me make the big choices in life. Because almost everything &#8211; all external expectations, all pride, all fear of embarrassment or failure &#8211; these things just fall away in the face of death, leaving only what is truly important. Remembering that you are going to die is the best way I know to avoid the trap of thinking you have something to lose. You are already naked. There is no reason not to follow your heart.  &#8230; stay hungry, stay foolish.<br />
– Stanford commencement speech 2005</p>
<p>&#8220;Your work is going to fill a large part of your life, and the only way to be truly satisfied is to do what you believe is great work. And the only way to do great work is to love what you do. If you haven&#8217;t found it yet, keep looking. Don&#8217;t settle. As with all matters of the heart, you&#8217;ll know when you find it. And, like any great relationship, it just gets better and better as the years roll on. So keep looking until you find it. Don&#8217;t settle.&#8221;<br />
– Stanford commencement speech 2005</p>
<p>&#8220;Picasso had a saying: &#8216;Good artists copy, great artists steal.&#8217; We have always been shameless about stealing great ideas&#8230;I think part of what made the Macintosh great was that the people working on it were musicians, poets, artists, zoologists and historians who also happened to be the best computer scientists in the world.&#8221;<br />
&#8211; 1994</p></blockquote>
<blockquote><p>Q: There’s a lot of symbolism to your return. Is that going to be enough to reinvigorate the company with a sense of magic?<br />
“You’re missing it. This is not a one-man show. What’s reinvigorating this company is two things: One, there’s a lot of really talented people in this company who listened to the world tell them they were losers for a couple of years, and some of them were on the verge of starting to believe it themselves. But they’re not losers. What they didn’t have was a good set of coaches, a good plan. A good senior management team. But they have that now.” [BusinessWeek, May 25, 1998]</p></blockquote>
<p><iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/UF8uR6Z6KLc" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe></p>
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		<title>Steve Jobs Was Always Kind To Me (Or, Regrets of An Asshole) &#124; The Wirecutter</title>
		<link>http://riskpredictions.info/technology/steve-jobs-was-always-kind-to-me-or-regrets-of-an-asshole-the-wirecutter/</link>
		<comments>http://riskpredictions.info/technology/steve-jobs-was-always-kind-to-me-or-regrets-of-an-asshole-the-wirecutter/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Oct 2011 04:54:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Yunwei Hu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[technology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Apple]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://riskpredictions.info/?p=474</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A touching remembrance of Steve Jobs.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A touching remembrance of <a href="http://thewirecutter.com/2011/10/steve-jobs-was-always-kind-to-me-or-regrets-of-an-asshole/">Steve Jobs</a>.</p>
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		<title>Tthe End of an Extraordinary Era &#8211; Walt Mossberg &#8211; Mossblog &#8211; AllThingsD</title>
		<link>http://riskpredictions.info/technology/tthe-end-of-an-extraordinary-era-walt-mossberg-mossblog-allthingsd/</link>
		<comments>http://riskpredictions.info/technology/tthe-end-of-an-extraordinary-era-walt-mossberg-mossblog-allthingsd/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 26 Sep 2011 04:57:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Yunwei Hu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[technology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Apple]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://riskpredictions.info/?p=464</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As Walt Mossberg put it: Steve Jobs’s resignation as chief executive officer of Apple is the end of an extraordinary era, not just for Apple, but for the global technology industry in general. Most people are lucky if they can &#8230; <a href="http://riskpredictions.info/technology/tthe-end-of-an-extraordinary-era-walt-mossberg-mossblog-allthingsd/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p><a href="http://allthingsd.com/20110824/jobs-leave-a-legacy-of-changed-industries/">As Walt Mossberg</a> put it:</p>
<p>Steve Jobs’s resignation as chief executive officer of Apple is the end  of an extraordinary era, not just for Apple, but for the global  technology industry in general.</p>
<p>Most people are lucky if they can change the world in one important  way, but Jobs, in multiple stages of his business career, changed global  technology, media and lifestyles in multiple ways on multiple  occasions.</p>
<p>He did it because he was willing to take big risks on new ideas, and  not be satisfied with small innovations fed by market research. He also  insisted on high quality and had the guts to leave out features others  found essential and to kill technologies, like the floppy drive and the  removable battery, he decided were no longer needed. And he has been a  brilliant marketer, personally passionate about his products.</p></blockquote>
<p>A lot of people are saying that Tim Cook might be good leader, but it seems everyone agrees that Jobs left a shoe no one can fit in.</p>
<p>Nicholas Thompson at New Yorker said:</p>
<blockquote><p>The big question now is whether Tim Cook, Jobs’s successor, can succeed.  I’m sure he’s good, and the people around him are good too. But he  won’t do as well, for at least one reason. Steve Jobs built a cult of  personality that gave him power. Many of Apple’s future fights will be  about content. Which tech companies will get the rights to show what  things, in what ways, on their devices? Jobs had a power that Cook could  not possibly have here, just because he was Jobs. He could summon  anyone he wanted to meet with him; he could get journalists to write  whatever he wanted them to write; and, if he and Apple threatened to  screw you over, you had to believe them.</p></blockquote>
<p>All best wishes to Steve. Like many in entertainment industry say: great legends die young. He is not exactly young, and he is not dying, yet. He is a legend.</p>
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		<title>Steve Jobs resigns as Apple CEO</title>
		<link>http://riskpredictions.info/technology/steve-jobs-resigns-as-apple-ceo/</link>
		<comments>http://riskpredictions.info/technology/steve-jobs-resigns-as-apple-ceo/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 25 Sep 2011 03:32:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Yunwei Hu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[technology]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://riskpredictions.info/?p=462</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Apple chief executive Steve Jobs, who almost single-handedly changed the way people around the world consume music, the Internet and even TV, announced late Wednesday that he has resigned as leader of the company he co-founded in his parents’ garage.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/steve-jobs-resigning-from-apple/2011/08/24/gIQAmwwPcJ_story.html">Apple chief executive Steve Jobs, who almost single-handedly changed the way people around the world consume music, the Internet and even TV, announced late Wednesday that he has resigned as leader of the company he co-founded in his parents’ garage.</a></p>
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		<title>Jobs Will Follow a Strengthening of the Middle Class &#8211; NYTimes.com</title>
		<link>http://riskpredictions.info/uncategorized/jobs-will-follow-a-strengthening-of-the-middle-class-nytimes-com/</link>
		<comments>http://riskpredictions.info/uncategorized/jobs-will-follow-a-strengthening-of-the-middle-class-nytimes-com/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 06 Sep 2011 04:43:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Yunwei Hu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economics]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://riskpredictions.info/?p=469</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Via NYTimes: Our society has become more and more unequal. When so much income goes to the top, the middle class doesn’t have enough purchasing power to keep the economy going without sinking ever more deeply into debt — which, as &#8230; <a href="http://riskpredictions.info/uncategorized/jobs-will-follow-a-strengthening-of-the-middle-class-nytimes-com/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Via <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/04/opinion/sunday/jobs-will-follow-a-strengthening-of-the-middle-class.html">NYTimes</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>Our society has become more and more unequal.</p>
<p>When so much income goes to the top, the middle class doesn’t have enough purchasing power to keep the economy going without sinking ever more deeply into debt — which, as we’ve seen, ends badly. An economy so dependent on the spending of a few is also prone to great booms and busts. The rich splurge and speculate when their savings are doing well. But when the values of their assets tumble, they pull back. That can lead to wild gyrations. Sound familiar?</p>
<p>The economy won’t really bounce back until America’s surge toward inequality is reversed.</p></blockquote>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/04/opinion/sunday/jobs-will-follow-a-strengthening-of-the-middle-class.html"><img src="http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2011/09/04/opinion/04reich-graphic/04reich-graphic-thumbWide.jpg" alt="The Limping Middle Class" /></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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